COP16 to be another disaster?

A number of FYEG delegates attended the contact group meeting this afternoon on Annex I Parties’ emissions reductions. When we arrived at 15:00, the start of the session, no delegates were present, only the Chair of the meeting. Eventually the discussions started thirty minutes late with less than half the delegates present. I’m finding it difficult to comprehend the level of disinterest at these talks, it’s truly shocking. Currently the only criticism delegates can muster seems to be about the standard of sandwiches, the only urgency in the coffee queue.

We now have three days of the United Nations Bonn Climate Talks left and 10 days of negotiations before COP16. This afternoon’s session was completely wasted first by starting late, followed by the absence of more than half the delegates. Then the delegates discussed for the entire session yesterday’s workshop on reducing emissions for Annex I parties instead of discussing the substance of the meeting. This was despite countless reminders by the Chair to move on, get to the substance and to stop going back to previous discussions.

Saudi Arabia constantly referred to various unimportant and irrelevant issues about the summary of a previous workshop. Japan repeatedly stressed there must be no Kyoto Protocol post 2012 – so no legally binding agreement – which also was irrelevant in the context of the meeting. But they were not alone. The EU and many other groups and countries were happy to join the time wasting game. In short, yet again, no progress was made.

This all begs the question; are these negotiators in a state of denial about the issue they are trying to resolve? Do they not care? Have they subsided into this carelessness and lackadaisical attitude after too many meals with corporate lobbyists? Do they still need a few more decades to cash in on their oil reserves? What on earth is the problem?

Global Climate Change: The FACTS

Just to remind you all of where we are regarding the science of global climate change, I have selected a few rather depressing facts, ironically all taken from the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change which uses the International Panel on Climate Change as its source:

Climate change is already happening, is unequivocal and this change can now be firmly attributed to human activity.

Between 1970 and 2004, emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs and SF6, the greenhouse gases covered by the Kyoto Protocol, have increased by 70% (24% since 1990). CO2, being by far the largest source, has grown by about 80% (28% since 1990). This has occurred because increases in income per capita and population have outweighed decreases in energy intensity of production and consumption.

Without additional policies, global GHG emissions are projected to increase 25-90% by 2030 relative to 2000. Fossil fuel dominance is expected to continue to 2030 and beyond, hence CO2 emissions from energy use are projected to grow 40-110% over that period. Two thirds to three quarters of this increase is projected to come from developing countries, though their average per capita CO2 emissions will remain substantially lower than those in developed country regions. Since 2000, carbon intensity of energy has been on the rise due to increased use of coal.

Overview of CO2 concentration level, corresponding temperature increases and year that concentrations would need to peak to maintain specific concentration levels:

CO2 concentration in ppm (pre-industrial levels at 278 ppm; current levels at 380 ppm)	Global mean temperature increase in C above preindustrial levels	Peaking year of CO2
350 – 400	2.0 -2.4	2000 – 2015
400 – 440	2.4 – 2.8	2000 – 2020
440 – 485	2.8 – 3.2	2010 – 2030
485 – 570	3.2 – 40	2020 – 2060
570 – 660	4.0 – 4.9	2050 – 2080

The world faces an average temperature rise of at least 3°C this century if greenhouse gas emissions continue to rise at their current pace and are allowed to double from their pre-industrial level. Extinction among 20-30% of plant and animal species is likely if the global temperature increase exceeds 1.5 – 2.5 °C.

In Africa, there’ll be increased water shortages (up to 250 million people in Africa at increased risk of water stress in 2020), reductions in the area suitable for agriculture and sea-level rise and consequent threats to cities. By mid-century, annual average river runoff and water availability are projected to increase by 10-40% at high latitudes and in some wet tropical areas, and decrease by 10-30% over some dry regions at mid-latitudes and in the dry tropics, some of which are presently water stressed areas. In tropical areas, crop yield is projected to decrease, even with relatively modest rises of 1- 2 °C in local temperature, increasing the risk of hunger.

In the Asian megadeltas, such as the Ganges-Brahmaputra and the Zhujiang, large populations will endure high exposure to sea-level rise, storm surge and river flooding.

Projected changes to the climate will affect the health of millions of people worldwide. The

changes will be most felt by those least able to adapt, such as the poor, the very young and the elderly.

The consequences of inaction a far too great. But I wouldn’t bet on parties to the UNFCCC safeguarding our future. We urgently need stronger, more coherent social movements to demand a fair deal. We need action now!

Report on the Migration and Displacement side event @ Bonn Climate Talks

Migration and displacement: policy options for Para 4(f) in the AWG-LCA text (UNU and partners)

United Nations University (UNU)

During the side event on migration and displacement, comprehensive discussion on climate change-induced migration and displacement took place in relation to the capacity of vulnerable populations to adapt. Since the impacts of climate change leads to loss of livelihoods, poverty aggravation forces populations to migrate. UNU representative state that shifting to other sources of livelihood upon the anthropogenic and natural degradation of the traditional one, causes further destruction of the ecosystem. Hence numerous conflicts arise out of the recurring environmental changes and pressure.

Several factors play a role in the environmentally induced migration decision such as profession (mainly farmers and cattle herders), attachment, (land ownership, family, history), cultural issues (language), financial means, alternative livelihoods in other villages/regions and attraction factors in villages/regions/countries of destination. However, a number of sectors particularly women, children and elderly are marginalised in the process. This holds true especially in the adaptation and challenges strategies. To make it worse, migration and environmental degradation consistently goes through a vicious cycle. Trend wise, research has shown a shift from seasonal migration towards permanent migration. Apart from this, cross border migration is becoming more and more common compared to internal migration.

Case studies on selected vulnerable countries were likewise presented. Worth mentioning is the drought prone country of Nigeria which is exposed to climate change-induced impacts through decrease of rainfall and changes in rainfall variability and distribution, potentially increase of droughts in terms of extent and frequency). Aggravating the situation is the higher population pressure leading to less viable land productivity.

In order to address potential conflicts, vulnerability and migration patterns due to environmental degradation and water crisis must be assessed. In addition, a clear distinction between environmentally-induced and economic-induced migration should also be made. In conclusion, further efforts to support communities not to move out will be an effective strategy to manage the risks associated to migration. Therefore, migration should be the last resort!

Brief summary of day one @ Bonn Climate Talks

YOUNGO met today before the opening meeting of the Bonn 3 Climate Talks. It was great to see such a large number of young people attending of which our delegation comprised about half, contributing significantly to the meeting. We discussed amongst other issues our “mission” at Bonn which varied from tracking delegates and relaying information back to our organisations and the public to specific activities such as preparing a YOUNGO submission of article 6. We also discussed two possible interventions split between AWG-KP and AWG-LCA meetings (see YOUNGO AWG-LCA Intervention blog post) and an NGO meeting with the new UNFCCC Secretariat Christine Figueras where we can raise two questions. Greenpeace will tutor us later in the week in the art of portraying clear messages during actions.

Generally both AWG discussions are not progressing at an adequate speed as per usual. The EU, as it has stated in a number of previous discussions, is still offering 20% reductions by 2020 or 30% depending on stronger commitments from other countries. Of course there’re a number of loopholes (e.g. LULUCF) which in reality reduce these pledges to relatively meaningless reductions and with respect to the science are totally inadequate. The Alliance of Small Island States believes Annex one countries pledges are in reality only 1 -7% reductions based on 1990 levels if you account for the loopholes. The AOSIS speaker was the only one to receive applause, largely from the NGOs present.

There was also a long discussion on a recent incident at the UNFCCC Bonn Climate Talks II involving the distribution of leaflets and the removal of an official name plate by Oxfam and WWF which was contrary to the rules of the negotiations. These actions were described with a little exaggeration as a “heinous crime” by some oil rich states as they called for further exclusion of civil society as punishment. This relatively minor incident unimportant to the negotiations and completely insignificant in comparison to the issue being discussed was used by some countries as an opportunity to waste a significant amount of time, especially considering there’s only 11 days of negotiations left before COP16. Fortunately, there was a happy ending of this discussion and ALL parties agreed to put this behind them and move forward.

This evening a number of us will attend the reception hosted by the German government – free food and drinks and a golden opportunity to informally lobby alcohol infused delegates. Nice.

UN Bonn Climate Change talks: FYEG follows the negotiations demanding a fair and green outcome.

A delegation of FYEG is arriving tomorrow to Bonn to follow the UN Climate Change Conference from the 2nd to the 6th of August. Our Delegation is composed of 9 Young Greens from Algeria,Germany,Belarus, Finland, Italy, the Philippines,England and Wales, Burkina Faso and Georgia.

As we did in Copenhagen, we will attend not only the talks but also the demonstrations and activities of other greens NGOs, being part of the social movements.

If we want to conserve our planet we cannot accept more than 1,5ºC increase of the global temperature, which means 350ppm. To achieve it first we need to build up alliances with developing countries, the smalls islands, youth organizations and the social movements in general to be strong enough to push for a real, fair and green agreement in the COP-16.

Follow the negotiations with FYEG, in facebook and in our magazine the ecosprinter.eu

Emails of our delegation:

Sebastian Power, FYEG Spokesperson
E-mail: sebastian@fyeg.org

Freia Then
E-mail: freiathen@hotmail.de

Antonina Yelistratova
E-mail: a.yelistratova@gmail.com

Kathrin Henneberger
E-mail:petitgrenouillebleu@googlemail.com

Nikolai Klix
E-mail: nikolai.klix@helsinki.fi

Anna Buccio
E-mail: buccio@ehess.fr

Shenna Sanchez
E-mail: Shenna.Lee.Sanchez@vub.ac.be

Tamar Shengelia
E-mail: tamarshngl@yahoo.com

Ben Medjkoune Aissa
E-mail: aissaetude@hotmail.com